Investing in Egyptian property: the honest version

What nobody can tell you

Nobody knows what a property will be worth in five years. Not us, not a developer, not an agent with a chart. Anyone who gives you a guaranteed return is telling you something they cannot know.

What can be assessed is demand: whether people want to live in a specific place, why, and how reliably. That is a question with real evidence behind it, and it is the one worth working on.

Rental strategies, and what each demands

The right strategy depends far more on how involved you can be than on which produces the biggest number on paper. Short-term letting managed badly earns less than a long lease managed well.

• Long-term unfurnished: lowest effort, most stable, lowest monthly income
• Long-term furnished: higher monthly income, furniture cost, more wear
• Short-term and holiday letting: highest potential income, highest effort, most seasonal, needs active management

Judging an area for rental demand

• Who would rent this, specifically? Name the tenant.
• What brings them here — a job, a university, a hospital, a school?
• Is that demand year-round or seasonal?
• How much competing supply is being built nearby right now?
• How easy is it to reach the places that tenant needs to go?

The risks worth taking seriously

• Delivery risk on off-plan purchases
• Currency movement if your income and costs are in different currencies
• Oversupply in fast-building districts
• Void periods when the property sits empty
• Management cost and effort, especially from abroad
• Maintenance and furniture replacement over time

Do the boring arithmetic

Before you buy anything as an investment, write down the total purchase cost including every fee, the realistic annual rent, and every cost of holding it — service charges, maintenance, management, void months, tax.

If the numbers only work when everything goes right, they do not work.